Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5313 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 5313 ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 4632 ACV 07:40 → SFO 08:56 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 17% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5313 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 06:00	SFO 07:09	17%	11%	13.1%	74%
UA 5305 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 18:44	SFO 20:07	41%	19%	11.2%	33%
UA 4655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 14:05	SFO 15:22	43%	23%	13.3%	57%
UA 4632 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 07:40	SFO 08:56	45%	21%	10.7%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON