Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4623 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 4623 ALB 06:05 → BWI 07:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1159 ALB 17:55 → BWI 19:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4623 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 06:05	BWI 07:25	3%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 2458 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 09:20	BWI 10:40	4%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 4723 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 11:20	BWI 12:40	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 159 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 15:00	BWI 16:20	12%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 1159 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 17:55	BWI 19:15	16%	5%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON