Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5101 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 5101 ALB 05:00 → DCA 06:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2347 ALB 15:33 → DCA 17:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5101 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 05:00	DCA 06:36	8%	4%	1.0%	87%
AA 5029 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 12:03	DCA 13:44	21%	8%	1.0%	53%
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 17:30	DCA 19:15	22%	10%	1.1%	57%
AA 2347 American Flight history →	ALB 15:33	DCA 17:00	23%	8%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON