Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2996 ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest DL 3785 ALB 17:05 → DTW 18:58 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2996 Delta Flight history →	ALB 06:05	DTW 07:41	8%	3%	0.6%	99%
DL 3697 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 09:36	DTW 11:24	10%	5%	0.7%	100%
DL 3785 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 17:05	DTW 18:58	13%	6%	0.7%	66%
DL 5521 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ALB 13:23	DTW 15:17	16%	9%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON