Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 88 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet that day B6 88 ALB 07:00 → FLL 10:15 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest G4 3479 ALB 19:53 → FLL 23:11 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 88 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 07:00	FLL 10:15	18%	8%	1.2%	74%
B6 1488 JetBlue Flight history →	ALB 09:55	FLL 13:13	21%	10%	1.1%	77%
G4 3479 Allegiant Flight history →	ALB 19:53	FLL 23:11	39%	18%	2.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON