Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 433 ALB 16:23 → ORD 17:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 3460 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 06:46	ORD 08:29	10%	3%	0.9%	93%
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 08:15	ORD 10:00	11%	6%	0.9%	83%
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ALB 12:20	ORD 13:56	14%	5%	0.7%	92%
AA 6433 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 19:56	ORD 21:47	15%	9%	1.3%	71%
AA 5004 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 13:18	ORD 15:05	16%	7%	1.1%	75%
UA 433 United Flight history →	ALB 16:23	ORD 17:59	16%	6%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON