tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2096 at 13:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2096 Southwest Flight history → AMA 13:20 AUS 14:40 18% 5% 0.6% 94%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AMA 05:30 → DAL 06:45WN 168 50m Dallas DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265 3h 10m 96% 90%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:02 → DFW 08:25AA 3780 · flown by Envoy 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 6h 23m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:14 → DFW 11:35AA 3389 · flown by Envoy 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 4h 46m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 20m 92% 78%
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:00 → DFW 06:23AA 4897 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:41 → AUS 08:52AA 4992 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 6h 29m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → AMA 13:17 → DFW 14:39AA 3384 · flown by Envoy 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:24AA 3402 · flown by Envoy 5h 07m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 6h 24m 93% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON