Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 168 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 168 AMA 05:30 → DAL 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 4471 AMA 18:25 → DAL 19:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 168 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 05:30	DAL 06:45	4%	1%	0.6%	85%
WN 4076 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 10:05	DAL 11:20	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 4333 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 15:10	DAL 16:20	26%	7%	0.6%	54%
WN 4471 Southwest Flight history →	AMA 18:25	DAL 19:40	32%	8%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON