Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 5221 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5221 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 08:00	DEN 08:41	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
UA 4743 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 17:20	DEN 18:06	24%	11%	0.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AMA 05:30 → DAL 06:45WN 168	1h 55m Dallas	DAL 08:40 → DEN 09:45WN 239	5h 15m	98%	86%
United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 41m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	6h 17m	96%	83%
United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 12m Houston	IAH 20:22 → DEN 22:15UA 2339	7h 57m	97%	81%
United Details →	AMA 11:56 → IAH 13:44UA 4827 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 37m Houston	IAH 16:21 → DEN 18:23UA 484	7h 27m	92%	74%
American Details →	AMA 07:02 → DFW 08:25AA 3780 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 44m	98%	74%
American Details →	AMA 05:00 → DFW 06:23AA 4897 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	5h 42m	93%	73%
Southwest Details →	AMA 13:20 → AUS 14:40WN 2096	2h 55m Austin	AUS 17:35 → DEN 19:05WN 290	6h 45m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	AMA 15:10 → DAL 16:20WN 4333	3h 05m Dallas	DAL 19:25 → DEN 20:45WN 1304	6h 35m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON