Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3780 AMA 07:02 → DFW 08:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3387 AMA 16:17 → DFW 17:42 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3780 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 07:02	DFW 08:25	7%	4%	1.2%	90%
AA 3389 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 10:14	DFW 11:35	8%	4%	1.1%	93%
AA 4897 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 05:00	DFW 06:23	9%	7%	0.7%	93%
AA 3048 American Flight history →	AMA 06:00	DFW 07:27	9%	6%	2.0%	82%
AA 3384 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 13:17	DFW 14:39	14%	4%	1.0%	81%
AA 3388 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 19:06	DFW 20:28	15%	6%	1.3%	85%
AA 3387 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 16:17	DFW 17:42	16%	7%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON