tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 380 at 14:20, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 380 Southwest Flight history → AMA 14:20 LAS 14:25 25% 11% 0.6% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → AMA 05:30 → DAL 06:45WN 168 2h 00m Dallas DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695 6h 05m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 24m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:00 → DFW 06:23AA 4897 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584 6h 16m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → AMA 11:56 → IAH 13:44UA 4827 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 49m Houston IAH 17:33 → LAS 18:51UA 2658 8h 55m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 55m Houston IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360 8h 05m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:02 → DFW 08:25AA 3780 · flown by Envoy 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:18 → LAS 13:06AA 777 8h 04m 99% 69%
SouthwestDetails → AMA 13:20 → AUS 14:40WN 2096 1h 10m Austin AUS 15:50 → LAS 16:40WN 4143 5h 20m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → AMA 18:25 → DAL 19:40WN 4471 50m Dallas DAL 20:30 → LAS 21:15WN 1128 4h 50m 51% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON