Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:22, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 416 Delta Flight history →	ANC 20:10	ATL 07:02	28%	5%	0.9%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	11h 04m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 30m Portland	PDX 07:30 → ATL 15:15AS 784	9h 53m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	9h 47m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 08:15 → SEA 12:51DL 1656	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → ATL 00:10 +1DL 560	11h 55m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	11h 05m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	11h 47m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 21:45 → ATL 05:38 +1DL 567	11h 26m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	ANC 08:00 → SEA 12:35AS 765	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → ATL 23:59AS 727	11h 59m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ANC 18:02 → SEA 22:37AS 1518	54m Seattle	SEA 23:31 → ATL 07:24 +1AS 464	9h 22m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON