Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1959 at 16:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1959 ANC 16:00 → DEN 23:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 173 ANC 22:25 → DEN 05:35 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1959 United Flight history →	ANC 16:00	DEN 23:17	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2614 United Flight history →	ANC 23:09	DEN 06:26	12%	2%	0.8%	89%
AS 752 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:16	DEN 06:34	12%	2%	0.7%	91%
UA 1153 United Flight history →	ANC 12:12	DEN 19:29	15%	4%	0.8%	72%
WN 173 Southwest Flight history →	ANC 22:25	DEN 05:35	24%	5%	0.6%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 20m Portland	PDX 07:20 → DEN 11:03AS 401	7h 41m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:27 → SEA 06:58AS 75	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 08:04 → DEN 11:56AS 375	7h 29m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	7h 32m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON