Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2059 Delta Flight history →	ANC 22:30	DTW 08:38	22%	6%	0.9%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	2h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	10h 37m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 16:16 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	8h 59m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	11h 34m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → DTW 21:49DL 533	11h 49m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33AS 313	11h 36m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 22:22 → DTW 05:41 +1AS 343	10h 57m	98%	71%
American Details →	ANC 07:00 → DFW 16:42AA 407	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → DTW 23:40AA 690	12h 40m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON