Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 00:57, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 363 United Flight history →	ANC 20:20	EWR 07:26	18%	5%	1.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 40m Portland	PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05AS 294	10h 43m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:29 → SEA 05:00AS 221	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 07:05 → EWR 15:31AS 239	11h 02m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	12h 14m	100%	77%
United Details →	ANC 14:05 → SFO 19:48UA 477	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141	12h 55m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314	12h 15m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 08:00 → SEA 12:35AS 765	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 15:38 → EWR 23:59AS 263	11h 59m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	3h 37m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → EWR 18:29AS 477	12h 32m	100%	67%
American Details →	ANC 07:00 → DFW 16:42AA 407	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:19 → EWR 22:59AA 2999	11h 59m	95%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON