Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 466 ANC 10:17 → FAI 11:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 1336 ANC 12:20 → FAI 13:24 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 466 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 10:17	FAI 11:21	12%	3%	1.4%	92%
AS 1612 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 20:38	FAI 21:42	15%	3%	1.3%	87%
AS 1336 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 12:20	FAI 13:24	15%	3%	1.4%	83%
AS 2277 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 22:58	FAI 23:59	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
AS 2103 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 15:28	FAI 16:31	12%	4%	2.0%	88%
AS 2085 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 19:00	FAI 20:01	17%	8%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON