Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 49 at 16:00, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 49 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 16:00	HNL 20:05	21%	5%	0.8%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 2 h behind Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34DL 351	12h 04m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:10 → PDX 13:48AS 1567	3h 44m Portland	PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841	13h 14m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	ANC 08:15 → SEA 12:51DL 1656	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → HNL 19:11DL 419	12h 56m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 46m Portland	PDX 07:46 → HNL 10:36AS 879	11h 14m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 08:00 → SEA 12:35AS 765	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	13h 16m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 08:00 → HNL 11:08AS 821	12h 11m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	ANC 13:00 → SEA 17:34AS 402	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → HNL 23:35AS 761	12h 35m	100%	65%
Alaska Details →	ANC 11:05 → LAX 17:24AS 56	3h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 20:47 → HNL 23:34AS 854	14h 29m	100%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON