Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 10:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 572 United Flight history →	ANC 20:15	IAD 07:12	14%	3%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 14:05 → SFO 19:48UA 477	3h 17m San Francisco	SFO 23:05 → IAD 07:30 +1UA 1083	13h 25m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 08:00 → SEA 12:35AS 765	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 16:01 → IAD 23:59AS 406	11h 59m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	ANC 08:15 → SEA 12:51DL 1656	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541	11h 53m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 09:13 → IAD 17:11AS 737	12h 14m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:44 → SEA 19:18AS 226	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	11h 55m	99%	74%
American Details →	ANC 07:00 → DFW 16:42AA 407	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:44 → IAD 22:52AA 1132	11h 52m	96%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON