Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 00:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1552 United Flight history →	ANC 22:29	IAH 08:25	18%	4%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	2h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502	9h 56m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:05 → IAH 13:35AS 1420	9h 13m	96%	84%
United Details →	ANC 12:12 → DEN 19:29UA 1153	1h 41m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	9h 29m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	ANC 15:43 → SEA 20:17AS 272	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398	11h 37m	100%	72%
American Details →	ANC 07:00 → DFW 16:42AA 407	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:50 → IAH 19:11AA 4923 · flown by SkyWest	9h 11m	90%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:07 → SEA 13:42AS 315	3h 51m Seattle	SEA 17:33 → IAH 23:59AS 1573	11h 52m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:27 → SEA 06:58AS 75	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438	11h 49m	99%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON