Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 00:57, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1535 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 20:04	JFK 07:18	14%	3%	1.1%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	12h 12m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 07:00 → JFK 15:29AS 26	10h 32m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49DL 429	10h 19m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 08:15 → SEA 12:51DL 1656	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 16:00 → JFK 00:21 +1DL 461	12h 06m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	12h 38m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 09:29 → JFK 17:55AS 34	11h 58m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 14:25 → SFO 20:08AS 1561	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 21:30 → JFK 06:20 +1AS 211	11h 55m	87%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 15:43 → SEA 20:17AS 272	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 55m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON