Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:22, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1636 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:59	LAS 06:11	16%	4%	0.7%	83%
WN 4112 Southwest Flight history →	ANC 23:55	LAS 06:00	21%	4%	0.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 37m Portland	PDX 07:37 → LAS 09:55AS 627	7h 33m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01DL 2922	7h 31m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:25 → LAS 08:50DL 1698	7h 15m	93%	84%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612	8h 32m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33AS 267	1h 17m Portland	PDX 17:50 → LAS 20:12AS 531	7h 18m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	ANC 08:15 → SEA 12:51DL 1656	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → LAS 19:00DL 2955	9h 45m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:10 → PDX 13:48AS 1567	58m Portland	PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778	6h 56m	89%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757	7h 11m	86%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON