Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1563 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:33	LAX 05:53	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 56 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 11:05	LAX 17:24	14%	3%	0.8%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095	8h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628	7h 35m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → LAX 17:35DL 2114	10h 35m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914	8h 23m	96%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 00m Portland	PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581	7h 15m	93%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:10 → PDX 13:48AS 1567	3h 49m Portland	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278	9h 59m	100%	81%
United Details →	ANC 12:12 → DEN 19:29UA 1153	1h 51m Denver	DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531	9h 43m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498	1h 58m Seattle	SEA 07:26 → LAX 10:20AS 717	8h 23m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ANC 07:00 → DFW 16:42AA 407	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → LAX 18:44AA 1972	10h 44m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON