Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 447 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 447 ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 377 ANC 22:10 → MSP 06:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 447 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	MSP 14:18	8%	4%	0.8%	86%
AS 1540 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 21:52	MSP 06:18	10%	3%	0.7%	98%
DL 555 Delta Flight history →	ANC 12:44	MSP 21:00	14%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 377 Delta Flight history →	ANC 22:10	MSP 06:25	19%	5%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON