Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 450 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 450 ANC 20:00 → ORD 05:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1354 ANC 21:57 → ORD 07:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 450 United Flight history →	ANC 20:00	ORD 05:18	16%	3%	0.9%	87%
UA 834 United Flight history →	ANC 23:59	ORD 09:19	18%	3%	0.9%	82%
AS 1543 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 23:21	ORD 08:35	23%	3%	0.8%	71%
AS 1724 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 21:24	ORD 06:40	25%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 1354 American Flight history →	ANC 21:57	ORD 07:19	30%	5%	1.0%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 07:20 → ORD 13:28DL 2055	8h 58m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:29 → SEA 05:00AS 221	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 06:00 → ORD 12:03AS 578	8h 34m	91%	82%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 00m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	8h 51m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON