Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 609 ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1609 ANC 16:09 → PDX 20:48 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 609 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:22	PDX 06:00	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
AS 1567 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:10	PDX 13:48	10%	2%	0.8%	92%
AS 267 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 11:54	PDX 16:33	12%	2%	0.8%	94%
AS 1609 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 16:09	PDX 20:48	15%	3%	0.7%	75%
AS 2398 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 05:00	PDX 09:45	14%	10%	3.8%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON