tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 01:22, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1550 Alaska Flight history → ANC 23:06 PHX 05:38 15% 4% 0.8% 92%
AA 2991 American Flight history → ANC 23:44 PHX 06:22 26% 6% 0.8% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 2h 23m Seattle SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419 8h 50m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609 1h 00m Portland PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349 7h 27m 93% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 00:57 → SEA 05:28AS 1498 1h 49m Seattle SEA 07:17 → PHX 10:20AS 606 8h 23m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → ANC 00:35 → SLC 07:11DL 2223 54m Salt Lake City SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447 7h 09m 85% 78%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 2h 50m Seattle SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442 9h 41m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 3h 31m Seattle SEA 09:59 → PHX 13:01AS 593 10h 04m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → ANC 12:12 → DEN 19:29UA 1153 1h 30m Denver DEN 20:59 → PHX 21:59UA 1236 8h 47m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33AS 267 1h 18m Portland PDX 17:51 → PHX 20:37AS 746 7h 43m 96% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON