Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 925 at 01:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 925 ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 544 ANC 17:23 → SEA 21:58 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 925 Delta Flight history →	ANC 01:30	SEA 06:02	6%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 98 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:57	SEA 06:28	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
AS 221 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 00:29	SEA 05:00	9%	2%	1.0%	98%
AS 1498 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 00:57	SEA 05:28	9%	2%	0.9%	90%
AS 54 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:29	SEA 06:00	9%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 1656 Delta Flight history →	ANC 08:15	SEA 12:51	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 853 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:40	10%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	ANC 11:42	SEA 16:20	11%	2%	0.8%	95%
AS 75 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 02:27	SEA 06:58	12%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	12%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 47 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:00	SEA 11:35	13%	2%	0.9%	80%
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 08:00	SEA 12:35	14%	2%	0.9%	91%
AS 363 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 12:15	SEA 16:49	15%	2%	0.8%	97%worse than usual
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 10:00	SEA 14:34	15%	2%	0.9%	88%
AS 332 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 11:30	SEA 16:04	15%	2%	0.9%	94%
AS 315 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:07	SEA 13:42	15%	2%	0.9%	91%
AS 82 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:35	16%	2%	1.0%	85%
AS 402 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 13:00	SEA 17:34	17%	3%	0.8%	85%
AS 1333 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 19:08	SEA 23:43	18%	5%	0.8%	78%
AS 1518 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 18:02	SEA 22:37	18%	5%	0.8%	80%
AS 268 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 16:32	SEA 21:07	20%	5%	0.8%	86%
AS 226 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 14:44	SEA 19:18	20%	3%	0.9%	83%
AS 272 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 15:43	SEA 20:17	22%	4%	0.9%	81%
AS 544 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 17:23	SEA 21:58	23%	5%	0.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON