Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2126 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2126 ANC 23:59 → SFO 05:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 1561 ANC 14:25 → SFO 20:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2126 United Flight history →	ANC 23:59	SFO 05:42	12%	4%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
UA 477 United Flight history →	ANC 14:05	SFO 19:48	13%	5%	0.7%	90%
AS 1561 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 14:25	SFO 20:08	23%	6%	0.7%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:22 → PDX 06:00AS 609	1h 19m Portland	PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526	6h 54m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:10 → PDX 13:48AS 1567	1h 01m Portland	PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236	6h 30m	90%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33AS 267	1h 03m Portland	PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504	6h 36m	90%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON