tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 3924 at 07:30, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3924 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 07:30 ATL 13:04 14% 7% 2.5% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Chicago ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770 8h 51m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50UA 4687 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671 7h 58m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424 5h 39m 90% 76%
DeltaDetails → ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Los Angeles LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471 10h 27m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47UA 5300 · flown by SkyWest 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:40 → ATL 17:54UA 1211 8h 54m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Denver DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305 7h 50m 94% 71%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:36 → DFW 10:57AA 6345 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:31 → ATL 16:42AA 1376 7h 06m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:43 → IAH 15:40UA 5493 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Houston IAH 18:05 → ATL 21:18UA 2050 7h 35m 94% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:00 → ORD 13:04UA 4669 · flown by SkyWest 51m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356 6h 10m 69% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON