tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 6205 at 13:46, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6205 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 13:46 AUS 17:09 27% 18% 3.7% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:36 → DFW 10:57AA 6345 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy 6h 24m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50UA 4687 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 7h 26m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 4h 50m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → ASE 10:31 → DFW 13:51AA 6388 · flown by SkyWest 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → AUS 18:24AA 3402 · flown by Envoy 6h 53m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 7h 19m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47UA 5300 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa 7h 29m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 16m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → ASE 07:30 → ATL 13:04DL 3924 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 49m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 59m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 4h 26m 73% 57%
UnitedDetails → ASE 18:12 → DEN 19:25UA 6011 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 4h 32m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON