Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4687 at 08:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day UA 4687 ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 5776 ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4687 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:32	DEN 09:50	10%	8%	3.1%	90%
UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	13%	8%	3.0%	89%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:15	DEN 10:33	18%	9%	3.3%	83%
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	22%	13%	3.2%	76%
UA 5607 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 14:22	DEN 15:35	22%	15%	3.9%	69%
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	26%	10%	3.2%	77%
UA 6011 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 18:12	DEN 19:25	27%	11%	5.3%	65%
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	27%	13%	5.2%	73%
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	29%	15%	4.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON