Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6345 ASE 07:36 → DFW 10:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 6384 ASE 14:14 → DFW 17:33 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6345 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:36	DFW 10:57	16%	9%	4.2%	71%
AA 6388 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 10:31	DFW 13:51	19%	12%	4.2%	72%
AA 4912 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:51	DFW 16:10	22%	14%	3.3%	77%
AA 6384 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 14:14	DFW 17:33	23%	15%	5.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON