tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5300 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 07:00 IAH 10:47 12% 7% 3.2% 84%
UA 5493 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 11:43 IAH 15:40 19% 11% 3.3% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50UA 4687 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 5h 37m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 6h 31m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 7h 34m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Denver DEN 10:07 → IAH 13:40UA 1129 5h 10m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:25 → ORD 11:31AA 6225 · flown by SkyWest 2h 04m Chicago ORD 13:35 → IAH 16:31AA 4426 · flown by Republic 8h 06m 90% 75%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:36 → DFW 10:57AA 6345 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy 7h 12m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588 7h 25m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Denver DEN 18:05 → IAH 21:36UA 2791 7h 29m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 18:12 → DEN 19:25UA 6011 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 4h 47m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:40 → SFO 11:19UA 5745 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 7h 47m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON