Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6225 ASE 07:25 → ORD 11:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 5956 ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6225 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:25	ORD 11:31	14%	8%	3.7%	82%
UA 4669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:00	ORD 13:04	21%	13%	3.5%	71%
AA 6386 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:22	ORD 15:29	22%	14%	3.1%	69%
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:39	ORD 16:45	23%	16%	3.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON