tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 27–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5745 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:40 SFO 11:19 27% 27% 5.7% 46%
OO 5550 SkyWest ASE 19:15 SFO 20:54 31% 25% 6.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 7h 39m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:32 → DEN 09:50UA 4687 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 5h 32m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:15 → DEN 10:33UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 6h 54m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:00 → IAH 10:47UA 5300 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Houston IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 9h 03m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 46m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:00 → ORD 13:04UA 4669 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Chicago ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577 9h 19m 87% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:15 → DEN 10:33UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 48m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 4h 49m 72% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON