tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 11:37, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 416 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:15 ANC 18:48 22% 4% 0.7% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 3h 55m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 12h 21m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340 2h 29m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 11h 23m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ATL 09:26 → EWR 11:44UA 1705 3h 44m Newark EWR 15:28 → ANC 19:12UA 450 13h 46m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:37 → IAH 12:47UA 425 1h 33m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 11h 04m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 20:30 → ANC 23:20DL 2713 12h 00m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:29 → ORD 12:52UA 1239 3h 18m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 25m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 2h 53m Detroit DTW 18:35 → ANC 21:20DL 1134 11h 33m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327 3h 07m Denver DEN 15:35 → ANC 19:12UA 1592 12h 02m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ATL 15:38 → MSP 17:16DL 2981 54m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 9h 22m 73% 57%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 07:00 → SEA 09:26AS 377 48m Seattle SEA 10:14 → ANC 13:00AS 1810 10h 00m 72% 48%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 16:18 → SEA 18:46AS 218 57m Seattle SEA 19:43 → ANC 22:22AS 663 10h 04m 69% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON