Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Aspen on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4011 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 09:45	ASE 11:22	17%	6%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest	9h 45m	99%	81%
United Details →	ATL 11:37 → IAH 12:47UA 425	3h 57m Houston	IAH 16:44 → ASE 18:34UA 5917 · flown by SkyWest	8h 57m	99%	80%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → ASE 12:21AA 4912 · flown by SkyWest	8h 20m	99%	80%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 27m Denver	DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest	6h 56m	98%	77%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	2h 39m Denver	DEN 15:07 → ASE 16:08UA 5773 · flown by SkyWest	6h 58m	98%	77%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:21 → ASE 13:44AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	97%	76%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	1h 35m Houston	IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	96%	75%
United Details →	ATL 15:30 → ORD 16:57UA 516	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → ASE 22:00UA 5254 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON