Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2945 at 21:16, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:16	ATW 22:31	16%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:35 → ATW 12:09AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → ATW 15:30DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	6h 35m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:20 → DTW 11:10DL 1298	1h 48m Detroit	DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	5h 05m	98%	77%
United Details →	ATL 10:05 → ORD 11:28UA 364	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 04m	96%	76%
American Details →	ATL 12:13 → ORD 13:30AA 1363	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → ATW 18:44AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	7h 31m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON