Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4363 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4363 ATL 06:00 → AUS 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 178 ATL 19:20 → AUS 20:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4363 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:00	AUS 07:20	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	AUS 09:27	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	AUS 11:03	12%	2%	0.7%	87%
WN 4777 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 09:50	AUS 11:10	12%	2%	0.5%	80%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	AUS 12:25	13%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	AUS 13:54	15%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:50	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	AUS 17:19	22%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 1335 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	AUS 00:18	24%	4%	0.7%	82%
F9 4211 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:11	AUS 12:38	25%	9%	0.9%	67%
DL 1170 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	AUS 20:22	25%	4%	0.7%	72%
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	AUS 22:07	27%	4%	0.6%	60%
WN 178 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 19:20	AUS 20:50	28%	7%	0.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON