Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3077 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 3077 ATL 08:15 → AVL 09:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3071 ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	AVL 09:16	9%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 573 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	AVL 11:08	12%	2%	0.9%	93%
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:16	AVL 13:12	14%	2%	0.9%	87%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	AVL 14:40	15%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 2037 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	AVL 16:12	21%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 3116 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	AVL 23:46	21%	5%	1.0%	82%
DL 3071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:37	AVL 20:41	24%	5%	1.0%	80%
DL 5121 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 17:02	AVL 18:10	49%	23%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON