Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3100 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 3100 ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2257 ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BHM 08:25	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	BHM 09:57	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	BHM 11:10	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:31	BHM 13:24	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:05	BHM 23:02	15%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:14	BHM 15:10	15%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	BHM 16:22	16%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 3202 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	BHM 19:58	16%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 1132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	BHM 17:55	17%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 2371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	BHM 18:55	17%	4%	0.6%	63%
DL 2257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:44	BHM 21:40	17%	4%	0.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON