Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 179 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 179 ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 3232 ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 179 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:10	BNA 07:15	4%	1%	0.5%	86%
DL 2250 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	BNA 07:38	5%	1%	0.6%	98%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	BNA 10:10	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	15%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:13	BNA 15:26	17%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 3121 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	BNA 23:15	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:31	BNA 18:52	19%	4%	0.6%	73%
DL 719 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:31	BNA 17:50	20%	3%	0.6%	71%
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:30	BNA 21:44	21%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 790 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	BNA 20:43	22%	3%	0.7%	67%
WN 4686 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:30	BNA 14:35	22%	4%	0.5%	23%
WN 3232 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 21:30	BNA 21:40	29%	6%	0.5%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON