Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 987 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 987 ATL 07:05 → BOS 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1096 ATL 18:53 → BOS 21:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 987 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:05	BOS 09:39	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2432 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BOS 11:06	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 855 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	BOS 12:45	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
B6 1896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:20	BOS 09:55	10%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BOS 13:47	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
F9 3512 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:05	BOS 07:46	11%	5%	0.8%	75%
DL 350 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:35	BOS 15:18	14%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 865 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	BOS 01:20	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 726 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	BOS 16:44	17%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 821 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BOS 21:00	20%	6%	0.6%	69%
DL 300 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:40	BOS 22:25	20%	6%	0.6%	70%
DL 2269 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	BOS 23:59	20%	5%	0.6%	63%
B6 896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:06	BOS 14:44	20%	9%	0.7%	64%
DL 2595 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	BOS 18:00	23%	6%	0.6%	66%
DL 518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	BOS 19:30	25%	7%	0.6%	59%
B6 1096 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 18:53	BOS 21:35	30%	17%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON