Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1384 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 1384 ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1408 ATL 11:45 → BUF 13:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1384 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	BUF 11:11	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2266 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	BUF 16:03	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2050 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:33	BUF 18:41	19%	5%	1.1%	75%
DL 2334 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:52	BUF 23:59	21%	5%	0.7%	77%
F9 1408 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:45	BUF 13:53	26%	9%	1.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON