tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via DFW, leaving 08:22, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 483 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:19 BUR 12:55 20% 3% 0.9% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 9h 02m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15WN 209 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198 7h 45m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340 2h 24m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 8h 18m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 08:00 → MDW 08:55WN 1270 1h 10m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 7h 25m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 08:55 → DAL 10:05WN 4394 1h 50m Dallas DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076 7h 10m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 9h 04m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 3h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 9h 28m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571 1h 48m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 8h 19m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 48m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 6h 48m 67% 49%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 15:40 → PHX 16:35WN 4758 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 18:10 → BUR 19:30WN 4667 6h 50m 73% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON