Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4364 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4364 ATL 07:00 → BWI 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1080 ATL 16:30 → BWI 18:33 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4364 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:00	BWI 08:50	4%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	BWI 09:24	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	BWI 10:47	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BWI 13:01	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 10:15	BWI 12:10	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	BWI 15:53	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
F9 2510 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:30	BWI 07:26	14%	5%	1.1%	69%
DL 2590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	BWI 00:39	17%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	BWI 17:15	18%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:27	BWI 18:23	19%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 204 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:25	BWI 16:15	20%	5%	0.6%	22%
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	22%	5%	0.6%	70%
WN 4778 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BWI 20:10	28%	8%	0.6%	51%
WN 189 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 19:50	BWI 21:45	31%	8%	0.6%	59%
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:38	BWI 15:34	34%	12%	1.0%	58%
F9 4712 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:17	BWI 23:17	35%	15%	1.1%	46%
F9 1080 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:30	BWI 18:33	35%	14%	1.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON