Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 406 at 11:09, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:09	BZN 13:11	11%	2%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	3h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest	8h 58m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 13:17 → BZN 14:47DL 2946	8h 03m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	ATL 08:00 → MDW 08:55WN 1270	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → BZN 13:10WN 1139	7h 10m	97%	86%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → BZN 10:47AA 1653	6h 46m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	8h 23m	98%	86%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 41m Denver	DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248	7h 50m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	ATL 09:30 → DEN 10:40WN 202	1h 50m Denver	DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219	6h 40m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON