Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1010 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1010 ATL 08:20 → CAE 09:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2153 ATL 16:08 → CAE 17:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:20	CAE 09:22	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:00	CAE 12:59	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:05	CAE 15:06	14%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 3029 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:39	CAE 23:43	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 1516 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:46	CAE 18:49	20%	4%	0.6%	29%
DL 2153 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:08	CAE 17:13	20%	4%	0.6%	65%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 10:05	CAE 11:14	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
DL 5001 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:10	CAE 21:19	40%	25%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON