Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1737 at 11:33 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1737 ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3579 ATL 17:38 → CHA 18:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1737 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:33	CHA 12:22	12%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 3141 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:13	CHA 14:02	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 3057 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:26	CHA 15:17	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 3150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:40	CHA 19:33	18%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 1059 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	CHA 23:55	19%	6%	0.8%	68%
DL 3579 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 17:38	CHA 18:38	22%	11%	1.1%	57%
DL 5309 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 08:20	CHA 09:19	10%	2%	1.6%	90%
DL 4722 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 19:45	CHA 20:46	37%	19%	5.5%	63%
DL 5368 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 21:10	CHA 22:11	53%	39%	0.0%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON