Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3091 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3091 ATL 09:00 → CHS 10:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3179 ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3091 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:00	CHS 10:13	11%	2%	1.5%	93%
DL 3107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:46	CHS 12:00	11%	2%	1.0%	93%
DL 2179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	CHS 13:42	14%	2%	1.1%	87%
DL 1381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	CHS 15:53	15%	3%	1.0%	84%
DL 2850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	CHS 00:26	17%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 2525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:05	CHS 23:19	19%	4%	0.7%	65%
DL 2174 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:59	CHS 17:16	21%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 1663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	CHS 22:07	21%	4%	0.8%	72%
DL 2493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:27	CHS 20:42	22%	4%	0.8%	83%
DL 3179 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:39	CHS 18:54	22%	3%	0.8%	76%
DL 5450 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:40	CHS 09:00	6%	0%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON